US Election 2016 – 50 days to go

Trump_&_Clinton

We have now reached the 50-day mark, and the lead that Clinton had over Donald Trump has ebbed away over the last ten days. Her comments on Trump’s supporters, her collapse at a 9/11 memorial and the recent suspected terrorist attacks in New York have all eaten away at her lead and, unless she performs well in the debates, Clinton might miss out on the presidency in an election that had been called hers to lose.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Clinton 293 Trump 203 Tied 15


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

NEWS IN BRIEF

  • Hillary Clinton sparks controversy after describing half of Trump’s supporters as a ‘basket of deplorables’.
  • Clinton collapsed during a 9/11 memorial and was diagnosed with pneumonia – fuelling criticism from the Trump camp that Clinton is unfit to hold public office. Trump later revealed his health records, with his doctor claiming he is in excellent health, despite being overweight.
  • Third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein have been officially excluded from the first of the presidential debates, after neither reached the 15% watermark required. Polls indicted Johnson managed only just over half the support required, at 8.4%. Stein was polling at 3.2%.
  • Trump, one of the most outspoken members of the false ‘birther’ movement, has conceded that Barack Obama was born in the United States, but claimed that Hillary Clinton founded the movement during her 2008 campaign for the Democratic nomination for president; there is no evidence to support his claim. The ‘birther’ movement had disputed that President Obama was born in Hawaii, instead claiming that he was born in Kenya.
  • A man has been arrested in connection with two bombings in New York City – no one was injured. The man was taken into custody after a shootout with police in New Jersey.

POLLING

Morning Consult (15-16 Sep) – Clinton 42% Trump 40% Johnson 8% Stein 3%

 

Most recent polling used, with most candidates where appropriate:

  • Alabama (9 EC) – Trump 57% Clinton 33% (19 Jul)
  • Alaska (3) – Trump 39% Clinton 29% Johnson 10% Stein 4% (27-29 Aug)
  • Arizona (11) – Trump 40% Clinton 38% Johnson 7% Stein 2% (6-8 Sep)
  • Arkansas (6) – Trump 57% Clinton 29% Johnson 5% Stein 3% (9-13 Sep)
  • California (55) – Clinton 57% Trump 32% Johnson 3% Stein 1% (8-11 Sep)
  • Colorado (9) – Trump 42% Clinton 38% Johnson 13% Stein 2% (9-13 Sep)
  • Connecticut (7) – Clinton 50% Trump 35% Johnson 9% Stein 4% (2-5 Sep)
  • Delaware (3) – Clinton 42% Trump 32% Johnson 9% (20-24 Jul)
  • District of Columbia (3) – Clinton 62% Trump 22% Johnson 3% (12-18 Jul)
  • Florida (29) – Clinton 43% Trump 40% Johnson 9% Stein 2% (10-14 Sep)
  • Georgia (16) – Trump 45% Clinton 39% Johnson 6% Stein 3% (9-13 Sep)
  • Hawaii (4) – no data, but has voted Democrat since 1988 election
  • Idaho (4) – Trump 44% Clinton 23% Johnson 13% Stein 2% (18-31 Aug)
  • Illinois (20) – Clinton 43% Trump 30% Johnson 8% Stein 3% (13-16 Sep)
  • Indiana (11) – Trump 43% Clinton 36% Johnson 11% (6-8 Sep)
  • Iowa (6) – Trump 45% Clinton 37% Johnson 8% Stein 2% (12-14 Sep)
  • Kansas (6) – Trump 48% Clinton 36% Johnson 8% Stein 2% (6-11 Sep)
  • Kentucky (8) – Trump 41% Clinton 25% (2-4 Aug)
  • Louisiana (8) – Trump 52% Clinton 36% (5-6 May)
  • Maine (4) – Clinton 42% Trump 39% Johnson 9% Stein 5% (4-10 Sep)
  • Maryland (10) – Clinton 54% Trump 25% Johnson 6% Stein 2% (18-30 Aug)
  • Massachusetts (11) – Clinton 54% Trump 28% Johnson 9% Stein 4% (7-10 Sep)
  • Michigan (16) – Clinton 38% Trump 35% Johnson 10% Stein 4% (10-13 Sep)
  • Minnesota (10) – Clinton 44% Trump 38% Johnson 6% Stein 2% (12-14 Sep)
  • Mississippi (6) – Trump 52% Clinton 39% Johnson 3% Stein 0% (11 Aug)
  • Missouri (10) – Trump 47% Clinton 34% Johnson 7% Stein 6% (9-13 Sep)
  • Montana (3) – no data, but has voted Republican since 1996 election
  • Nebraska (5) – no data, but has voted Republican since 1968 election
  • Nevada (6) – Trump 44% Clinton 42% Johnson 8% (11-13 Sep)
  • New Hampshire (4) – Clinton 39% Trump 37% Johnson 15% Stein 3% (6-8 Sep)
  • New Jersey (14) Clinton 47% Trump 43% Johnson 5% Stein 2% (2-5 Sep)
  • New Mexico (5) – Clinton 40% Trump 31% Johnson 16% Stein 4% (19-21 Aug)
  • New York (29) – Clinton 52% Trump 34% Johnson 8% Stein 3% (28-30 Aug)
  • North Carolina (15) – Clinton 42% Trump 42% Johnson 5% (11-12 Sep)
  • North Dakota (3) – no data, but has voted Republican since 1968 election
  • Ohio (18) – Trump 44% Clinton 39% Johnson 10% Stein 3% (9-12 Sep)
  • Oklahoma (7) – Trump 51% Clinton 36% Johnson 6% (13-15 Sep)
  • Oregon (7) – Clinton 43% Trump 28% Johnson 11% Stein 3% (2-7 Sep)
  • Pennsylvania (20) – Clinton 40% Trump 32% Johnson 14% Stein 5% (12-16 Sep)
  • Rhode Island (4) – Clinton 44% Trump 41% Johnson 8% Stein 4% (2-5 Sep)
  • South Carolina (9) – Trump 53% Clinton 38% Johnson 3% Stein 1% (6-12 Sep)
  • South Dakota (3) – no data, but has voted Republican since 1968 election
  • Tennessee (11) – Trump 49% Clinton 33% (25-27 Jul)
  • Texas (38) – Trump 39% Clinton 32% Johnson 9% Stein 3% (1-11 Sep)
  • Utah (6) – Trump 39% Clinton 24% Johnson 13% Stein 0% Castle 2% McMullin 9% (1-9 Sep)
  • Vermont (3) – Clinton 47% Trump 26% Johnson 13% Stein 7% (2-5 Sep)
  • Virginia (13) – Clinton 45% Trump 39% Johnson 6% Stein 2% (9-11 Sep)
  • Washington (12) – Clinton 43% Trump 24% Johnson 7% Stein 4% (9-13 Aug)
  • West Virginia (5) – Trump 49% Clinton 31% Johnson 10% Stein 4% (9-28 Aug)
  • Wisconsin (10) – Clinton 43% Trump 38% Johnson 7% Stein 3% (27-30 Aug)
  • Wyoming (3) – no data, but has voted Republican since 1968 election

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s