US Election 2016: 1 month to go

Trump_&_Clinton

Today is one month until the majority of Americans go to the polls to elect their next President (I say majority, as roughly 30-40% of voters will be voting before election day – Obama being one of them!). Trump has undoubtedly suffered in the aftermath of the presidential debate, having courted the votes of the terminally ill, shamed a former Miss Universe whom he called ‘Miss Piggy’, and today forced to apologise after bragging about groping women in remarks made in 2005.

Clinton now has a lead of roughly 6 per cent nationally, and is ahead of where Obama was in the polls at this point in the campaign in 2012. Fivethirtyeight now has Trump’s chances of winning at 22.5% in their ‘polls-plus’ model, and even less in their polls-only. With even close Trump advisers admitting ‘it’s over’, it looks like the Republicans could be heading for a humiliating defeat…

In today’s blog, we’ll take a look specifically at the polls, and how different groups in America plan to vote on November 8th.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

NATIONAL POLLING

Quinnipiac University (5-6 Oct) – Clinton 45% Trump 40% Johnson 6% Stein 2%

NATIONAL POLLING BY DEMOGRAPHIC

African Americans

CBS/NYT (28 Sep – 2 Oct) – Clinton 80% Trump 7% Johnson 5% Stein 2%

Hispanic Americans

ABC/Washington Post (19-22 Sep) – Clinton 68% Trump 19% Johnson 8% Stein 3%

White Americans

Quinnipiac University (5-6 Oct) – Trump 51% Clinton 38% Johnson 5% Stein 2%

Female Americans

CBS/NYT (28 Sep – 2 Oct) – Clinton 51% Trump 33% Johnson 8% Stein 3%

Male Americans

CBS/NYT (28 Sep – 2 Oct) – Trump 49% Clinton 38% Johnson 7% Stein 2%

LGBT Americans

Whitman Insight Strategies (29 Mar – 2 Apr) – Clinton 84% Trump 16%

STATEWIDE POLLING

Most recent polling used, with most candidates where appropriate:

  • Alabama (9 EC) – Trump 57% Clinton 33% (19 Jul)
  • Alaska (3) – Trump 37% Clinton 34% Johnson 10% Stein 2% (5-6 Oct)
  • Arizona (11) – Clinton 44% Trump 42% Johnson 9% Stein 1% (2-4 Oct)
  • Arkansas (6) – Trump 55% Clinton 34% Johnson 3% Stein 1% (15-17 Sep)
  • California (55) – Clinton 59% Trump 33% Johnson 3% Stein 2% (27-28 Sep)
  • Colorado (9) – Clinton 49% Trump 38% Johnson 7% Stein 3% (29 Sep – 2 Oct)
  • Connecticut (7) – Clinton 50% Trump 35% Johnson 9% Stein 4% (2-5 Sep)
  • Delaware (3) – Clinton 51% Trump 30% Johnson 7% Stein 2% (16-28 Sep)
  • District of Columbia (3) – Clinton 62% Trump 22% Johnson 3% (12-18 Jul)
  • Florida (29) – Clinton 41% Trump 38% Johnson 6% Stein 3% (27 Sep – 4 Oct)
  • Georgia (16) – Trump 47% Clinton 43% Johnson 6% (21-22 Sep)
  • Hawaii (4) – no data, but has voted Democrat since 1988 election
  • Idaho (4) – Trump 44% Clinton 23% Johnson 13% Stein 2% (18-31 Aug)
  • Illinois (20) – Clinton 53% Trump 28% Johnson 5% Stein 2% (27 Sep – 2 Oct)
  • Indiana (11) – Trump 43% Clinton 38% Johnson 11% (3-5 Oct)
  • Iowa (6) – Clinton 38% Trump 38% Johnson 9% Stein 1% (20-22 Sep)
  • Kansas (6) – Trump 48% Clinton 36% Johnson 8% Stein 2% (6-11 Sep)
  • Kentucky (8) – Trump 41% Clinton 25% (2-4 Aug)
  • Louisiana (8) – Trump 45% Clinton 35% Johnson 6% Stein 2% (22-24 Sep)
  • Maine (4) – Clinton 40% Trump 36% Johnson 12% Stein 3% (15-20 Sep)
  • Maryland (10) – Clinton 63% Trump 27% Johnson 4% Stein 2% (27-30 Sep)
  • Massachusetts (11) – Clinton 58% Trump 26% Johnson 7% Stein 4% (24 Sep – 3 Oct)
  • Michigan (16) – Clinton 43% Trump 32% Johnson 10% Stein 3% (1-3 Oct)
  • Minnesota (10) – Clinton 46% Trump 39% Johnson 6% Stein 2% (16-20 Sep)
  • Mississippi (6) – Trump 52% Clinton 39% Johnson 3% Stein 0% (11 Aug)
  • Missouri (10) – Trump 49% Clinton 39% Johnson 5% (26-27 Sep)
  • Montana (3) – no data, but has voted Republican since 1996 election
  • Nebraska (5) – Trump 56% Clinton 29% Johnson 7% Stein 1% (25-27 Sep)
  • Nevada (6) – Clinton 43% Trump 43% Johnson 9% Stein 4% (2-4 Oct)
  • New Hampshire (4) – Clinton 44% Trump 42% Johnson 5% Stein 1% (3-5 Oct)
  • New Jersey (14) Clinton 46% Trump 40% (22-29 Sep)
  • New Mexico (5) – Clinton 46% Trump 33% Johnson 14% Stein 2% (28 Sep – 2 Oct)
  • New York (29) – Clinton 52% Trump 31% Johnson 7% Stein 5% (21-23 Sep)
  • North Carolina (15) – Clinton 46% Trump 43% Johnson 6% Stein 2% (29 Sep – 2 Oct)
  • North Dakota (3) – Trump 43% Clinton 32% Johnson 8% Stein 1% (12-17 Sep)
  • Ohio (18) – Clinton 44% Trump 43% Johnson 5% Stein 2% (5-6 Oct)
  • Oklahoma (7) – Trump 51% Clinton 36% Johnson 6% (13-15 Sep)
  • Oregon (7) – Clinton 45% Trump 33% Johnson 8% Stein 3% (29 Sep – 1 Oct)
  • Pennsylvania (20) – Clinton 50% Trump 40% Johnson 5% Stein 2% (30 Sep – 3 Oct)
  • Rhode Island (4) – Clinton 52% Trump 32% Johnson 5% Stein 5% (2-4 Oct)
  • South Carolina (9) – Trump 42% Clinton 38% Johnson 6% Stein 3% (18-26 Sep)
  • South Dakota (3) – no data, but has voted Republican since 1968 election
  • Tennessee (11) – Trump 50% Clinton 38% Johnson 5% Stein 1% (28 Sep – 2 Oct)
  • Texas (38) – Trump 45% Clinton 38% Johnson 4% Stein 1% (29 Sep – 1 Oct)
  • Utah (6) – Trump 34% Clinton 25% Johnson 13% McMullin 12% (12-19 Sep)
  • Vermont (3) – Clinton 47% Trump 26% Johnson 13% Stein 7% (2-5 Sep)
  • Virginia (13) – Clinton 46% Trump 40% Johnson 7% Stein 1% (27-28 Sep)
  • Washington (12) – Clinton 47% Trump 31% Johnson 10% Stein 4% (29 Sep – 3 Oct)
  • West Virginia (5) – Trump 60% Clinton 28% (13-17 Sep)
  • Wisconsin (10) – Clinton 48% Trump 40% Johnson 4% Stein 1% (4 Oct)
  • Wyoming (3) – Trump 54% Clinton 19% Johnson 10% Stein 2% (6-11 Sep)

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