US Election 2016: 1 month to go

Today is one month until the majority of Americans go to the polls to elect their next President (I say majority, as roughly 30-40% of voters will be voting before election day – Obama being one of them!). Trump has undoubtedly suffered in the aftermath of the presidential debate, having courted the votes of the terminally ill, shamed a former Miss Universe whom he called ‘Miss Piggy’, and today forced to apologise after bragging about groping women in remarks made in 2005.

Clinton now has a lead of roughly 6 per cent nationally, and is ahead of where Obama was in the polls at this point in the campaign in 2012. Fivethirtyeight now has Trump’s chances of winning at 22.5% in their ‘polls-plus’ model, and even less in their polls-only. With even close Trump advisers admitting ‘it’s over’, it looks like the Republicans could be heading for a humiliating defeat…

In today’s blog, we’ll take a look specifically at the polls, and how different groups in America plan to vote on November 8th.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

NATIONAL POLLING

Quinnipiac University (5-6 Oct) – Clinton 45% Trump 40% Johnson 6% Stein 2%

NATIONAL POLLING BY DEMOGRAPHIC

African Americans

CBS/NYT (28 Sep – 2 Oct) – Clinton 80% Trump 7% Johnson 5% Stein 2%

Hispanic Americans

ABC/Washington Post (19-22 Sep) – Clinton 68% Trump 19% Johnson 8% Stein 3%

White Americans

Quinnipiac University (5-6 Oct) – Trump 51% Clinton 38% Johnson 5% Stein 2%

Female Americans

CBS/NYT (28 Sep – 2 Oct) – Clinton 51% Trump 33% Johnson 8% Stein 3%

Male Americans

CBS/NYT (28 Sep – 2 Oct) – Trump 49% Clinton 38% Johnson 7% Stein 2%

LGBT Americans

Whitman Insight Strategies (29 Mar – 2 Apr) – Clinton 84% Trump 16%

STATEWIDE POLLING

Most recent polling used, with most candidates where appropriate:

• Alabama (9 EC) – Trump 57% Clinton 33% (19 Jul)
• Alaska (3) – Trump 37% Clinton 34% Johnson 10% Stein 2% (5-6 Oct)
• Arizona (11) – Clinton 44% Trump 42% Johnson 9% Stein 1% (2-4 Oct)
• Arkansas (6) – Trump 55% Clinton 34% Johnson 3% Stein 1% (15-17 Sep)
• California (55) – Clinton 59% Trump 33% Johnson 3% Stein 2% (27-28 Sep)
• Colorado (9) – Clinton 49% Trump 38% Johnson 7% Stein 3% (29 Sep – 2 Oct)
• Connecticut (7) – Clinton 50% Trump 35% Johnson 9% Stein 4% (2-5 Sep)
• Delaware (3) – Clinton 51% Trump 30% Johnson 7% Stein 2% (16-28 Sep)
• District of Columbia (3) – Clinton 62% Trump 22% Johnson 3% (12-18 Jul)
• Florida (29) – Clinton 41% Trump 38% Johnson 6% Stein 3% (27 Sep – 4 Oct)
• Georgia (16) – Trump 47% Clinton 43% Johnson 6% (21-22 Sep)
• Hawaii (4) – no data, but has voted Democrat since 1988 election
• Idaho (4) – Trump 44% Clinton 23% Johnson 13% Stein 2% (18-31 Aug)
• Illinois (20) – Clinton 53% Trump 28% Johnson 5% Stein 2% (27 Sep – 2 Oct)
• Indiana (11) – Trump 43% Clinton 38% Johnson 11% (3-5 Oct)
• Iowa (6) – Clinton 38% Trump 38% Johnson 9% Stein 1% (20-22 Sep)
• Kansas (6) – Trump 48% Clinton 36% Johnson 8% Stein 2% (6-11 Sep)
• Kentucky (8) – Trump 41% Clinton 25% (2-4 Aug)
• Louisiana (8) – Trump 45% Clinton 35% Johnson 6% Stein 2% (22-24 Sep)
• Maine (4) – Clinton 40% Trump 36% Johnson 12% Stein 3% (15-20 Sep)
• Maryland (10) – Clinton 63% Trump 27% Johnson 4% Stein 2% (27-30 Sep)
• Massachusetts (11) – Clinton 58% Trump 26% Johnson 7% Stein 4% (24 Sep – 3 Oct)
• Michigan (16) – Clinton 43% Trump 32% Johnson 10% Stein 3% (1-3 Oct)
• Minnesota (10) – Clinton 46% Trump 39% Johnson 6% Stein 2% (16-20 Sep)
• Mississippi (6) – Trump 52% Clinton 39% Johnson 3% Stein 0% (11 Aug)
• Missouri (10) – Trump 49% Clinton 39% Johnson 5% (26-27 Sep)
• Montana (3) – no data, but has voted Republican since 1996 election
• Nebraska (5) – Trump 56% Clinton 29% Johnson 7% Stein 1% (25-27 Sep)
• Nevada (6) – Clinton 43% Trump 43% Johnson 9% Stein 4% (2-4 Oct)
• New Hampshire (4) – Clinton 44% Trump 42% Johnson 5% Stein 1% (3-5 Oct)
• New Jersey (14) Clinton 46% Trump 40% (22-29 Sep)
• New Mexico (5) – Clinton 46% Trump 33% Johnson 14% Stein 2% (28 Sep – 2 Oct)
• New York (29) – Clinton 52% Trump 31% Johnson 7% Stein 5% (21-23 Sep)
• North Carolina (15) – Clinton 46% Trump 43% Johnson 6% Stein 2% (29 Sep – 2 Oct)
• North Dakota (3) – Trump 43% Clinton 32% Johnson 8% Stein 1% (12-17 Sep)
• Ohio (18) – Clinton 44% Trump 43% Johnson 5% Stein 2% (5-6 Oct)
• Oklahoma (7) – Trump 51% Clinton 36% Johnson 6% (13-15 Sep)
• Oregon (7) – Clinton 45% Trump 33% Johnson 8% Stein 3% (29 Sep – 1 Oct)
• Pennsylvania (20) – Clinton 50% Trump 40% Johnson 5% Stein 2% (30 Sep – 3 Oct)
• Rhode Island (4) – Clinton 52% Trump 32% Johnson 5% Stein 5% (2-4 Oct)
• South Carolina (9) – Trump 42% Clinton 38% Johnson 6% Stein 3% (18-26 Sep)
• South Dakota (3) – no data, but has voted Republican since 1968 election
• Tennessee (11) – Trump 50% Clinton 38% Johnson 5% Stein 1% (28 Sep – 2 Oct)
• Texas (38) – Trump 45% Clinton 38% Johnson 4% Stein 1% (29 Sep – 1 Oct)
• Utah (6) – Trump 34% Clinton 25% Johnson 13% McMullin 12% (12-19 Sep)
• Vermont (3) – Clinton 47% Trump 26% Johnson 13% Stein 7% (2-5 Sep)
• Virginia (13) – Clinton 46% Trump 40% Johnson 7% Stein 1% (27-28 Sep)
• Washington (12) – Clinton 47% Trump 31% Johnson 10% Stein 4% (29 Sep – 3 Oct)
• West Virginia (5) – Trump 60% Clinton 28% (13-17 Sep)
• Wisconsin (10) – Clinton 48% Trump 40% Johnson 4% Stein 1% (4 Oct)
• Wyoming (3) – Trump 54% Clinton 19% Johnson 10% Stein 2% (6-11 Sep)