US Election 2016: 20 (ish) days to go

Trump_&_Clinton

The final debate has been held and it, once again, appears that Clinton has won after Trump collapsed and caused further controversy by claiming that he may not accept the result of the election. Moreover, the vast number of women, now ten, who have claimed to have been sexually assaulted by Trump has hit him very badly in both state and national polling. With less than three weeks to go, Clinton leads by roughly eight points over Trump, and even states like Alaska and Texas look in play – for the first time in many decades. Also, surprisingly, a third party candidate (Evan McMullin) could win a state for the first time since 1968 – with McMullin in pole position in Utah.

Below we’ll take a look at the polling and what the election result would be if it were held today…

NATIONAL POLLING

Quinnipiac University (17-18 Oct) – Clinton 47% Trump 40% Johnson 7% Stein 1%

STATEWIDE POLLING

Clinton 334 Trump 180 McMullin 6 Tied 18


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Most recent polling used, with most candidates where appropriate:

  • Alabama (9 EC) – Trump 48% Clinton 32% (27 Sep)
  • Alaska (3) – Trump 37% Clinton 36% Johnson 7% Stein 3% (11-13 Oct)
  • Arizona (11) – Clinton 39% Trump 34% Johnson 6% Stein 1% (10-15 Oct)
  • Arkansas (6) – Trump 55% Clinton 34% Johnson 3% Stein 1% (15-17 Sep)
  • California (55) – Clinton 56% Trump 30% Johnson 4% Stein 2% (13-15 Oct)
  • Colorado (9) – Clinton 45% Trump 37% Johnson 10% Stein 3% (10-16 Oct)
  • Connecticut (7) – Clinton 50% Trump 35% Johnson 9% Stein 4% (2-5 Sep)
  • Delaware (3) – Clinton 51% Trump 30% Johnson 7% Stein 2% (16-28 Sep)
  • District of Columbia (3) – no data, but has voted Democrat since 1968 election
  • Florida (29) – Clinton 48% Trump 44% Johnson 4% Stein 1% (10-16 Oct)
  • Georgia (16) – Trump 46% Clinton 43% Johnson 2% (15-18 Oct)
  • Hawaii (4) – no data, but has voted Democrat since 1988 election
  • Idaho (4) – Trump 40% Clinton 30% Johnson 10% Stein 3% (28 Sep – 9 Oct)
  • Illinois (20) – Clinton 53% Trump 28% Johnson 5% Stein 2% (27 Sep – 2 Oct)
  • Indiana (11) – Trump 45% Clinton 41% Johnson 9% (11-13 Oct)
  • Iowa (6) – Trump 43% Clinton 39% Johnson 9% Stein 1% (3-6 Oct)
  • Kansas (6) – Trump 47% Clinton 36% Johnson 7% Stein 2% (11-15 Oct)
  • Kentucky (8) – no data, but has voted Republican since 1996 election
  • Louisiana (8) – Trump 45% Clinton 38% Johnson 4% Stein 1% (22-24 Sep)
  • Maine (4) – Clinton 44% Trump 36% Johnson 9% Stein 3% (7-9 Oct)
  • Maryland (10) – Clinton 63% Trump 27% Johnson 4% Stein 2% (27-30 Sep)
  • Massachusetts (11) – Clinton 54% Trump 28% Johnson 7% Stein 3% (13-16 Oct)
  • Michigan (16) – Clinton 47% Trump 37% Johnson 7% Stein 4% (11 Oct)
  • Minnesota (10) – Clinton 46% Trump 39% Johnson 6% Stein 2% (16-20 Sep)
  • Mississippi (6) – no data, but has voted Republican since 1976 election
  • Missouri (10) – Trump 47% Clinton 39% Johnson 5% Stein 2% (17-19 Oct)
  • Montana (3) – Trump 46% Clinton 36% Johnson 11% (10-12 Oct)
  • Nebraska (5) – Trump 56% Clinton 29% Johnson 7% Stein 1% (25-27 Sep)
  • Nevada (6) – Clinton 47% Trump 40% Johnson 7% (14-17 Oct)
  • New Hampshire (4) – Clinton 44% Trump 36% Johnson 10% Stein 6% (17-19 Oct)
  • New Jersey (14) Clinton 49% Trump 35% Johnson 6% Stein 4% (12-16 Oct)
  • New Mexico (5) – Clinton 46% Trump 36% Johnson 12% Stein 2% (11 Oct)
  • New York (29) – Clinton 54% Trump 30% Johnson 5% Stein 4% (13-17 Oct)
  • North Carolina (15) – Clinton 44% Trump 42% Johnson 5% (14-17 Oct)
  • North Dakota (3) – Trump 43% Clinton 32% Johnson 8% Stein 1% (12-17 Sep)
  • Ohio (18) – Clinton 45% Trump 45% Johnson 6% Stein 1% (10-16 Oct)
  • Oklahoma (7) – Trump 51% Clinton 36% Johnson 6% (13-15 Sep)
  • Oregon (7) – Clinton 46% Trump 36% Johnson 5% Stein 5% (4-14 Oct)
  • Pennsylvania (20) – Clinton 45% Trump 41% Johnson 4% Stein 4% (17-19 Oct)
  • Rhode Island (4) – Clinton 52% Trump 32% Johnson 5% Stein 5% (2-4 Oct)
  • South Carolina (9) – Trump 42% Clinton 38% Johnson 6% Stein 3% (18-26 Sep)
  • South Dakota (3) – no data, but has voted Republican since 1968 election
  • Tennessee (11) – Trump 44% Clinton 34% Johnson 7% Stein 2% (14-17 Oct)
  • Texas (38) – Trump 41% Clinton 38% Johnson 4% Stein 1% (7-15 Oct)
  • Utah (6) – McMullin 31% Trump 27% Clinton 24% Johnson 5% (17-19 Oct)
  • Vermont (3) – Clinton 45% Trump 17% Johnson 4% Stein 3% (29 Sep – 14 Oct)
  • Virginia (13) – Clinton 47% Trump 38% Johnson 3% Stein 1% McMullin 2% (12-15 Oct)
  • Washington (12) – Clinton 47% Trump 31% Johnson 10% Stein 4% (29 Sep – 3 Oct)
  • West Virginia (5) – Trump 60% Clinton 28% (13-17 Sep)
  • Wisconsin (10) – Clinton 50% Trump 38% (18-19 Oct)
  • Wyoming (3) – Trump 54% Clinton 19% Johnson 10% Stein 2% (6-11 Sep)

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