Three-quarters of the votes have been counted from the Icelandic election are now in after polls closed at 10pm last night – here’s a breakdown…
IN A NUTSHELL (so far…)
- Iceland reportedly suffers its worst turnout ever, at 65% (turnout in 2013 was 81.44%)
- Independence Party remains the largest party, gaining two seats, taking them to 21 in the Althing
- Independence-Progressive coalition government collapses as Progressive Party loses more than half of its support, losing 11 seats (falling to eight)
- Pirates almost triple their support, winning roughly 15% of the vote, but place third with nine seats
- Left-Green Movement becomes the official opposition party, placing second with 16% and ten seats.
- New party Revival/Regeneration gains 10.5% of the vote, winning seven seats in parliament
- Social Democratic Alliance have their worst electoral performance in its 16 year history, winning only three seats and only narrowly escaping being kicked out of the Althing altogether
- Bright Future loses one seat in parliament, after winning 7.3% of the vote (down 1% on 2013)
- People’s Party, a new party founded by an Icelandic X-factor contestant, wins 3.6% of the vote, narrowly missing the threshold required for parliamentary representation
- Far-right National Front achieve only 0.2% of the vote
RESULTS (so far…)
- Independence Party – 29.1%, 21 seats (+2.4%, +2 seats)
- Left-Green Movement – 15.8%, 10 seats (+2.9%, +3 seats)
- Pirate Party – 14.5%, 9 seats (+9.4%, +6 seats)
- Progressive Party – 11.3%, 8 seats (-13.1%, -11 seats)
- Revival/Regeneration – 10.5%, 7 seats (new party)
- Bright Future – 7.3%, 5 seats (-0.9%, -1 seat)
- Social Democratic Alliance – 5.8%, 3 seats (-7.1%, -6 seats)
- People’s Party – 3.6% (new party)
- Dawn – 1.7% (-1.4%)
- People’s Front of Iceland – 0.3% (+0.2%)
- Icelandic National Front – 0.2% (new party)
- Humanist Party – 0.0% (-0.1%)
SO WHAT NEXT?
Counting is still ongoing so we should find out the final results by this afternoon, at which point coalition building will begin. The old Independence-Progressive coalition can only achieve 29 of the 32 seats required for a majority, so a repeat of the last government is not possible. Independence could make up the numbers by also including Revival in a coalition deal, but this may prove tricky. Revival only recently broke away from Independence over their eurosceptic stance, and some in the Independence Party are unwilling to do another deal with the Progressives following the Panama Papers scandal.
The Left-Green Movement and the Pirates, having gained the most from the election, may see themselves as having the real mandate to form a government. However, forming a government may prove even harder. Together, the two parties would make up only 19 seats, far away from the number required for a majority. Even the proposed four-party coalition deal, alongside Bright Future and the Social Democratic Alliance, would fall five seats short. The only option for a government led by the Left-Greens would be a five-party coalition including Revival, something which would likely be very unstable.
If these both fail, there are two other options. The first would be to make deals with unsavoury people; perhaps a coalition of Independence and the Left-Green Movement could be successful once the final results are in. Such a coalition isn’t unprecedented, with Independence going into coalition with the Social Democratic Alliance in 2007. However, how willing both sides would be to do such a deal remains to be seen.
The other final option would be to have another election and go through the same campaign again, which no one really wants…
Party leaders are set to meet the President on Monday to begin the process.
More updates as they come in…
thoughtsfromdan.com 