US Election 2016: 1 day to go

Tomorrow is finally election day – the campaigning and the mudslinging are almost at an end! And since I last did one of these blogs, the polls have narrowed significantly…

Here I’ll take a look at the current predictions from the major pollsters, and what the latest polls say will be the result tomorrow evening, and importantly when are the results announced.

WHEN ARE THE RESULTS?

Tomorrow’s election takes place in all 50 US states and Washington DC, spanning six time zones, meaning not all the results will be announced at once.

The first polls will close in Indiana and Kentucky first at around 2300 GMT and, as these are traditionally Republican states, these will likely be declared for Trump pretty soon after polls close.

An hour later, polling stations will close in the battleground states of Florida and Virginia, as well as South Carolina, Georgia and Vermont, followed by Ohio and North Carolina at 0030 GMT. State projections for these will be based on exit polls, but close states are often labelled ‘too close to call’ until more votes are counted.

0100 GMT sees 19 declarations, with Pennsylvania and Michigan being key target states for Trump and vital to Clinton’s ‘electoral firewall’.

Colorado follows at 0200 GMT, with Iowa and Nevada closing their polls at 0300 GMT – all important states for both candidates. Also at 0300, Utah will conclude voting, which could see a third-party candidate Evan McMullin win.

The final result could be known at 0400 GMT at the earliest, as the west coast states’ polls close. However, if it is a close race, you could be in for a long night!

NATIONAL POLLING

Bloomberg News/Selzer (4-6 Nov) – Clinton 44% Trump 41% Johnson 4% Stein 2%

ELECTORAL COLLEGE (BASED ON POLLSTERS)

Clinton 307 Trump 216 Too close to call 15

Solid Democrat 268 Solid Republican 151

Based on New York Times’ classification of each state

CHANCE OF WINNING THE PRESIDENCY

• New York Times: Clinton 84% Trump 16%
• FiveThirtyEight: Clinton 69% Trump 31%
• Huffington Post: Clinton 98% Trump 2%
• Predictwise: Clinton 89% Trump 11%
• Princeton Election Consortium: Clinton 99% Trump 1%
• Daily Kos: Clinton 88% Trump 12%

STATEWIDE POLLING

Trump 268 Clinton 254 Too close to call 16

Most recent polling used, with most candidates where appropriate:

• Alabama (9 EC) – Trump 48% Clinton 32% (27 Sep)
• Alaska (3) – Trump 37% Clinton 36% Johnson 7% Stein 3% (11-13 Oct)
• Arizona (11) – Trump 47% Clinton 39% Johnson 4% Stein 3% (1-2 Nov)
• Arkansas (6) – Trump 56% Clinton 33% Johnson 4% Stein 2% (21 Oct)
• California (55) – Clinton 56% Trump 35% Johnson 4% Stein 1% (28-31 Oct)
• Colorado (9) – Clinton 48% Trump 43% Johnson 4% Stein 2% McMullin 1% (3-4 Nov)
• Connecticut (7) – Clinton 50% Trump 35% Johnson 9% Stein 4% (2-5 Sep)
• Delaware (3) – Clinton 51% Trump 30% Johnson 7% Stein 2% (16-28 Sep)
• District of Columbia (3) – no data, but has voted Democrat since 1968 election
• Florida (29) – Trump 50% Clinton 46% Johnson 2% Stein 1% (6 Nov)
• Georgia (16) – Trump 49% Clinton 46% Johnson 3% (6 Nov)
• Hawaii (4) – no data, but has voted Democrat since 1988 election
• Idaho (4) – Trump 48% Clinton 29% McMullin 10% Johnson 6%  (23-24 Oct)
• Illinois (20) – Clinton 53% Trump 41% Johnson 2% Stein 0% (27-30 Oct)
• Indiana (11) – Trump 48% Clinton 37% Johnson 9% (1-3 Nov)
• Iowa (6) – Trump 46% Clinton 39% Johnson 6% Stein 1% (1-4 Nov)
• Kansas (6) – Trump 58% Clinton 34% (1-3 Nov)
• Kentucky (8) – Trump 54% Clinton 37% Johnson 1% Stein 1% McMullin 1% (25-30 Oct)
• Louisiana (8) – Trump 49% Clinton 35% Johnson 7% Stein 2% (15-21 Oct)
• Maine (2*) – Clinton 46% Trump 42% Johnson 12% Stein 2% (28-30 Oct)
• *Maine 1st Congressional District (1) – Clinton 51% Trump 37% (24-26 Oct)
• *Maine 2nd Congressional District (1) – Clinton 43% Trump 43% (24-26 Oct)
• Maryland (10) – Clinton 63% Trump 27% Johnson 4% Stein 2% (27-30 Sep)
• Massachusetts (11) – Clinton 56% Trump 26% Johnson 8% Stein 3% (23 Oct – 2 Nov)
• Michigan (16) – Clinton 46% Trump 41% Johnson 6% Stein 2% (3-4 Nov)
• Minnesota (10) – Clinton 49% Trump 39% Johnson 5% Stein 2% (22-26 Oct)
• Mississippi (6) – no data, but has voted Republican since 1976 election
• Missouri (10) – Trump 47% Clinton 41% Johnson 7% Stein 2% (4-5 Nov)
• Montana (3) – Trump 46% Clinton 36% Johnson 11% (10-12 Oct)
• Nebraska (2*) – Trump 56% Clinton 29% Johnson 7% Stein 1% (25-27 Sep)
• *Nebraska 1st Congressional District (1) – Trump 53% Clinton 29% (25-27 Sep)
• *Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1) – Trump 44% Clinton 40% (20-24 Oct)
• *Nebraska 3rd Congressional District (1) – Trump 65% Clinton 20% (25-27 Sep)
• Nevada (6) – Clinton 47% Trump 46% Johnson 4% Stein 1% (4-5 Nov)
• New Hampshire (4) – Clinton 45% Trump 44% Johnson 5% Stein 3% (4-5 Nov)
• New Jersey (14) Clinton 51% Trump 40% Johnson 3% Stein 1% (27 Oct – 2 Nov)
• New Mexico (5) – Clinton 46% Trump 44% Johnson 6% Stein 1% (6 Nov)
• New York (29) – Clinton 51% Trump 34% Johnson 5% Stein 2% (3-4 Nov)
• North Carolina (15) – Clinton 44% Trump 44% Johnson 3% (4-6 Nov)
• North Dakota (3) – Trump 43% Clinton 32% Johnson 8% Stein 1% (12-17 Sep)
• Ohio (18) – Trump 46% Clinton 39% Johnson 7% Stein 3% (4-5 Nov)
• Oklahoma (7) – Trump 60% Clinton 30% Johnson 5% (18-20 Oct)
• Oregon (7) – Clinton 41% Trump 34% Johnson 4% Stein 2% (24-29 Oct)
• Pennsylvania (20) – Trump 48% Clinton 47% Johnson 2% Stein 1% (3-5 Nov)
• Rhode Island (4) – Clinton 52% Trump 32% Johnson 5% Stein 5% (2-4 Oct)
• South Carolina (9) – Trump 47% Clinton 36% Johnson 3% McMullin 1% (30-31 Oct)
• South Dakota (3) – Trump 49% Clinton 35% Johnson 7% Castle 1% (24-26 Oct)
• Tennessee (11) – Trump 44% Clinton 34% Johnson 7% Stein 2% (14-17 Oct)
• Texas (38) – Trump 49% Clinton 35% Johnson 5% Stein 4% (31 Oct – 1 Nov)
• Utah (6) – Trump 40% Clinton 30% McMullin 25% Johnson 4% (3-5 Nov)
• Vermont (3) – Clinton 52% Trump 26% Johnson 5% Stein 2% (24-26 Oct)
• Virginia (13) – Clinton 48% Trump 42% Johnson 3% McMullin 2% Stein <1% (1-6 Nov)
• Washington (12) – Clinton 50% Trump 38% Johnson 4% Stein 2% (31 Oct – 2 Nov)
• West Virginia (5) – Trump 60% Clinton 28% (13-17 Sep)
• Wisconsin (10) – Clinton 44% Trump 38% Johnson 7% Stein 2% (31 Oct – 1 Nov)
• Wyoming (3) – Trump 58% Clinton 20% Johnson 9% Stein 2% (5-11 Oct)