Tories could lose over 200 seats at next election, poll suggests

The Conservative Party could have their worst performance in a general election since 1761, according to a recent ComRes poll.

The poll, from 9th May, puts the Conservatives on a new low of 19 percent, placing third in terms of support behind the Brexit Party, on 20 percent. Labour remain ahead on 27 percent.

The Liberal Democrats are polling at 14 percent, with Change UK on seven percent, the Greens on five percent and UKIP on three percent.

Such a result would see the Conservatives go from 318 seats to 112, down by 206 and to their lowest number of seats in over two centuries.

Labour would be on course for a slim majority in Parliament with 330 seats, the same number of seats won by David Cameron in 2015. This would include seats held by Boris Johnson, Justine Greening, Amber Rudd and Iain Duncan Smith.

The Liberal Democrats would recover from their record low in 2015 to a new high, with 79 seats, including Dominic Rabb’s seat of Esher and Walton.

The SNP would gain 18 seats, climbing to 53, leaving the Conservatives with no seats north of the border.

With a fifth of the national vote, the newly-formed Brexit Party would win 51 seats, primarily in the south and east of England. This includes seats like Clacton, formerly held by UKIP, Thurrock, South Thanet and Great Yarmouth – the seat of Conservative Party chairman Brandon Lewis. The Speaker, John Bercow, would also lose his seat to Farage’s new party.

The Green Party would also make take their first seat outside of Brighton Pavilion, winning the Isle of Wight in a three horse race with the Conservatives and the Brexit Party.

An Opinium poll from May 8th does not look any better for the Conservatives, despite them polling slightly ahead of the Brexit Party.

Labour, on 28 percent, would win 314 seats, with the Conservatives (22 percent) on 192 – their worst performance since 2001. The SNP would win 53 seats, with the Liberal Democrats (11 percent) on 45, the Brexit Party (21 percent) with 23, Plaid Cymru on three and the Green Party (six percent) with one.

Both polls also predict a win for an independent candidate over the Conservatives in East Devon, which would be the first independent MP elected since 2005.

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