Three of the ten Conservative leadership candidates, including front-runner Boris Johnson, are projected to lose their seats at the next general election.
A poll of over 10,000 people over the European elections last week by Lord Ashcroft put Labour ahead with 21 percent of the vote, the Conservatives tied with the Brexit Party with 18 percent, and the Liberal Democrats close behind with 17 percent.
Such a result would put Labour on 268 seats, up just six on their result in 2017, according to a projection by Flavible. The Conservatives would win just 151 – such a performance would be their worst result in over 110 years, with the party being wiped out in Scotland and Wales.
Conversely, the Liberal Democrats would enjoy their best ever result, with 97 seats in Parliament and regaining lost ground in the West Country.
The Brexit Party would win 56, the SNP 53, Plaid Cymru four and an one independent, in Devon East. The Green Party would gain another seat, the Isle of Wight, almost ten years after first entering Parliament.
Among Liberal Democrat gains would be the seats of South West Surrey and Esher and Walton, currently the seats of Jeremy Hunt and Dominic Raab respectively.
Boris Johnson would also lose his seat, instead to the Brexit Party by more than four percent, with the Conservatives projected to come third in his seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Should either one of these become Prime Minister, they could be the first leader to lose their seat since Arthur Balfour in 1906.
Among the other high profile losses would be potential leadership contenders Steve Baker, Deputy Chair of the ERG, and Sir Graham Brady, former Chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee. Both would lose their respective seats to the Liberal Democrats.
Also falling victim to a possible Liberal Democrat surge would be Change UK leader Heidi Allen, Labour MP for Vauxhall Kate Hoey, former Education Secretary Justine Greening, Labour MP for Canterbury Rosie Duffield, and the Conservative seat of Witney – formerly held by David Cameron.
Transport Secretary Chris Grayling would narrowly hold his seat of Epsom and Ewell from the Liberal Democrats by less than 0.4 percent of the vote.
Meanwhile, Conservative Party chairman Brandon Lewis faces the prospect of losing his seat to the Brexit Party.
thoughtsfromdan.com 