The Brexit Party would win the next general election if it was held today, according to the latest poll by Opinium.
The poll of 2,005 people put Nigel Farage’s new party on 26 percent, Labour second on 22 percent, the Conservatives on 17 percent, and the Liberal Democrats on 16. The Greens reached a new high in polling, with 11 percent.
According to Electoral Calculus, such a result would put Nigel Farage only 23 seats away from becoming Prime Minister, with 303 seats. Labour would win 206 seats, the SNP on 56, the Liberal Democrats on 32 and the Conservatives down on only 30 seats.
The poll comes amid a boost in the polls for both the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats after a strong performance in the European elections.
Unless the poll is replicated in future polling too, it is fair to assume that this is an outlier, but what is clear is that the next general election is a four horse race, with four parties each polling around 15 to 20 percent. With the electoral system the UK has, the slightest change in these circumstances can have a major shift in the number of seats.