The Liberal Democrats are on course to win their first by-election since 2016, according to a recent opinion poll.

The NCPolitics poll for next month’s Brecon and Radnorshire by-election puts the party 15 percent ahead of the Conservatives, who held the seat until the recall petition unseated MP Christopher Davies.

The poll of 509 constituents puts the Conservatives on 28 percent, down by over 20 percent on their result at the 2017 election. The Brexit Party trails behind in third place with 20 percent.

Of the other parties contesting the by-election, Labour are on eight percent in the poll, down by 10 percent on 2017, with UKIP and the satire Monster Raving Loony Party both on one percent.

The by-election will take place just one week after the new Conservative and new Liberal Democrat leaders are elected and is seen as an important early test of their respective leaderships.

Should the Conservatives lose the seat, the government’s working majority will be reduced to just three.