Who would win a general election if held today?

With Boris Johnson losing his first vote in Parliament as MPs try to block a no deal Brexit, the Prime Minister is attempting to call a general election.

To do this, he needs support from a two-thirds majority of the House of Commons, which does not seem likely given Labour’s opposition to an election until no deal is taken off the table.

But what would happen if a general election was held today?

For this prediction, I’ve taken an average of the four national polls from the last week, as well as the most recent polls for Scotland, Wales, London and Northern Ireland.

Based on the current polling and using Flavible’s model, the Conservatives would hold an overall majority of 16 seats, gaining 25 seats at an election. Labour would lose 72 seats, putting them below 200 seats for the first time since 1935.

The SNP would remain the third largest party, with 49 seats, with the Liberal Democrats on 45 seats.

In Northern Ireland, the DUP would lose a seat to the Alliance Party, for the time since the 2010 general election.

The Brexit Party, although polling above 10 percent, would only win one seat in Parliament – expected to be Thurrock.

Based on this, Boris Johnson would remain Prime Minister and a no deal Brexit would likely result, unless he could agree a new deal with the European Union.

However, given the result in 2017, it is possible that the effects of an election campaign could mean the result could be quite different, with the prospect of another hung parliament not out of the realms of possibility.

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