The Supreme Court has just ruled that Boris Johnson acted unlawfully in proroguing Parliament for five weeks. However, the Prime Minister has indicated that he will not resign, intends to continue to push to leave the EU on October 31st and has dared opposition parties to call a vote of no confidence.
A vote of no confidence would only need a simple majority to pass and could result in a general election, should an alternative government not be formed within 14 days.
But what would happen if a general election was held today?
For this prediction, I’ve taken an average of three national polls from the last week, as well as their regional breakdown for Scotland and Wales and the most recent poll for Northern Ireland.
Based on the current polling and using Flavible’s model, the Conservatives would be short of an overall majority by 20 seats, winning 315 seats – down two on 2017. Labour would lose 53 seats, including Warwick, Ipswich and Cambridge, putting them on 209 seats.
The SNP would remain the third largest party, with 51 seats, tied with the Liberal Democrats. Among the seats the Lib Dems would gain would include the seat of Sir Oliver Letwin, Lewes, St Albans and Sheffield Hallam.
In Northern Ireland, the DUP would lose a seat to the Alliance Party, for the time since the 2010 general election.
The Brexit Party, although polling at an average of almost 15 percent, would only win one seat in Parliament – expected to be Thurrock.
Based on this, the Prime Minister may struggle to form a government – even with support from the DUP and the Brexit Party, Johnson be short of the 326 needed for a majority with only 325 seats. That said, with Sinn Fein not taking their seats, it might be possible to achieve a working majority.
However, Jeremy Corbyn may also find it difficult to form a government, as the Liberal Democrats have ruled out a coalition with Labour. A Labour-led government would require both the Liberal Democrats and the SNP to form a government.
The result would be highly dependent on both when an election is called and how far along the Brexit process the country is.