Who would win a general election if held today?

The campaign for a general election has begun, with each of the main parties launching their pitch to voters. So what do the polls say about how the country might vote on December 12th?

For this prediction, I’ve taken an average of the most recent opinion polls from seven pollsters taken during the campaign period, as well as the most recent polls for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

2017 election results
2019 projection

Based on the current polling and using Flavible’s model, the Conservatives win with a majority of 98, with 374 seats in Parliament – their most seats since 1987.

Labour would lose a staggering 92 seats, including Warwick, Ipswich, Cambridge, Halifax and Darlington, putting them on 182 seats. Dennis Skinner, a veteran Labour MP, would lose his seat to the Conservatives under this projection.

The SNP would remain the third largest party, with 50 seats, with the Liberal Democrats on 33. Among the seats the Lib Dems would gain would include Lewes, St Albans and Sheffield Hallam.

In Northern Ireland, the DUP would lose two seats to the Alliance Party for the time since the 2010 general election, making up one of these losses in North Down.

The Brexit Party, with 10 percent of the vote in this projection, would fail to win a seat in Parliament.

Based on this, the Prime Minister would have a strong majority in the House of Commons to implement their legislative agenda, without the threat of a small group of rebels causing defeats in Parliament.

For Labour, this would mark the worst result in the party’s history since 1935, when they won 154 seats in Parliament.

However, with the country only at the start of the election campaign, the polls may fluctuate over the coming weeks in the run up to polling day itself.

6 responses to “Who would win a general election if held today?

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