Who would win the 2019 general election if held today?

The election campaign is now well underway, with each of the parties releasing their manifestos, so with just over a fortnight to go until polling day, how might the country vote?

For this prediction, I’ve taken an average of the most recent opinion polls from eight pollsters taken during the last seven days, as well an average of the two most recent polls from Scotland, alongside the most recent polls in Northern Ireland and Wales, and put this into Electoral Calculus’ model.

2017 election results
2019 projection

Based on the current polling and using Electoral Calculus’ model, the Conservatives win with a majority of 66, with 358 seats in Parliament. Such a result would be their best result since 1987 under Margaret Thatcher, who won 376.

Labour would lose 45 seats, including Great Grimsby, Peterborough, Ashfield and Darlington, putting them on 217 seats – only eight seats better than Michael Foot in 1983, and reversing all the gains made by Labour at the last election. Labour losses also include Sedgefield, the seat of former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair.

The SNP would remain the third largest party, with 40 seats, with the Liberal Democrats on a disappointing 14, up only two seats.

In Northern Ireland, the DUP would lose one seats to the Alliance Party for the time since the 2010 general election, with the Alliance also picking up North Down, the seat of former independent MP Lady Hermon.

In Wales, Ceredigion – traditionally a two-horse race between the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru – is set to be a Conservative gain.

The Brexit Party would fail to win a seat in Parliament.

The size of the Conservative majority has varied considerably over the last three weeks, as the Liberal Democrat and Brexit Party vote share has fallen. Whilst Labour has recovered by around three points since candidates have been declared, they appear not to have closed the gap further over the last week.

Voters cast their ballot on Thursday, but turnout and tactical voting could be crucial in determining the final result.

7 responses to “Who would win the 2019 general election if held today?

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