YouGov MRP refuses to rule out hung parliament

YouGov’s final MRP poll of the general election puts a hung parliament result within the margin of error.

The poll, published at 10pm on Tuesday, predicts that a Tory majority is the most likely outcome, but only of 28.

It gives the Conservatives 339 seats, with Labour on 231, SNP on 41 and the Liberal Democrats on a disappointing 15.

However, the margin of error could put the Conservatives’ number of seats between 311 and 367.

New – Our final MRP of the campaign shows a small Conservative majority likely.

Central estimate is a majority of 28.

However at this stage we still cannot rule out a hung parliament. https://t.co/tcd02e3yJP

— Chris Curtis (@chriscurtis94) December 10, 2019

Although the Conservatives are projected to make gains into the so-called ‘Red Wall’, the Tories are expected not to take Workington and there are several constituencies marked by YouGov as ‘tossups’.

Those include pivotal seats, such as Kensington, Dagenham, Wrexham, Gordon, Winchester, Esher and Walton (held by Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab) and the former seat of Tony Blair, Sedgefield.

A further shift to Labour or the Conservatives could see the result dramatically shift to the benefit of either party.

Final vote share projections by pollsters are due to be published tomorrow, before voters go to the polls on Thursday.