Who would win the next UK election if held today?

Boris Johnson is several months in to his first term in office after his landslide victory in the general election in December. However, his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the election of Keir Starmer as Labour leader has dented his support in the polls.

The next election is not due to take place until May 2 2024, but this could change as the government plans to scrap the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, which would allow them to call an election at a time of their choosing. So what would happen if a general election was held today?

Based on current polling, the Conservatives would remain the largest party with their vote share slightly down on 2019. Labour would see their vote share increase by over six percent, whilst the Liberal Democrats would see their support shrink by almost a quarter.

So how might such a result translate into seats at a general election?

Based on Flavible’s constituency model, such a result would leave the Conservatives ten seats short of the 326 needed for an overall majority, although they would remain the largest party. Labour would gain 47 seats to 249.

Many of the gains made by Labour in this scenario include those lost by the party in the 2019 general election, including Darlington, High Peak, Kensington, Peterborough, Derby North, Wrexham and Lincoln. They also include other constituencies such as Watford, Vale of Glamorgan, and Chingford and Woodford Green – the constituency of former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith.

In Scotland, the SNP would gain all but five seats, with Labour holding onto its only seat, the Tories keeping only three, and the Liberal Democrats holding on to one seat.

The Liberal Democrats would lose three of the 11 seats won in 2019; namely three of their four Scottish seats – Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, Fife North East and Edinburgh West.

Plaid Cymru and the Green Party would hold on to the same seats they won at the last election.

Such a result would prove difficult for Labour to form a government – with a confidence and supply arrangement with the SNP offering only 303 seats. A repeat of the Conservative-DUP deal could give the Tories a working majority (when Sinn Fein’s abstention is factored in); such an arrangement would garner a total of 324 seats.

This projection should be taken with a pinch of salt, however, as boundary changes are due to be completed by the next general election, which may vary how many seats each party would win.

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