Biden ‘favoured’ to win election – FiveThirtyEight

Credit: Gage Skidmore

Democrat nominee Joe Biden is ‘favoured’ to win the presidential election in November, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election model.

The model, launched earlier today, gives Biden a 71 percent chance of winning the presidency based on a range of 40,000 possible election outcomes.

The website does caveat this projection, however, adding that there is ‘still time for the race to tighten’.

“Biden might win in a landslide,” a tweet by the publication said. “BUT the election is not today. It’s August. We have debates and conventions. There’s a pandemic, which is also causing a volatile economy.

“It’s way too soon to count Trump out.”

The model appears more conservative on Biden’s chance of victory compared to some other models, with The Economist currently giving Biden an 88 percent chance of winning the electoral college.

FiveThirtyEight’s current projection would see Biden and his VP nominee Kamala Harris flip the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and Nebraska’s second congressional district.

However, the model anticipates close races in those states and for the Democratic ticket to fall short in states such as North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, Iowa and Texas.

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