Credit: Chatham House

Prime Minister Boris Johnson could face a tough re-election campaign in his own constituency, according to a new Opinium poll for The Observer.

The poll puts both the Conservatives and Labour practically neck and neck nationally at 40 percent each, marking the first time since the general election that a poll has not shown a Tory lead.

The Liberal Democrats have seen little change at six percent, with the SNP on five percent and the Greens on three percent.

Based on Flavible’s election model, such a result could see Labour would gain 75 seats, with 78 losses for the Conservatives. Among the Tory constituencies lost would include Steve Baker (Wycombe), Iain Duncan Smith (Chingford and Woodford Green), Alok Sharma (Reading West) and Alister Jack (Dumfries and Galloway).

Most notably, Flavible projects a tight race in the Prime Minister’s own constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Johnson, who held the seat with an increased majority and 53 percent of the vote, faces a dead heat with Labour with 47 percent each – should this poll be reflected in an actual election.

Many of Labour’s gains come from the former ‘red wall’, such as High Peak, Colne Peak, Burnley, Pendle, Bolsover, Keighley, Copeland and Sedgefield – the seat of former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair. The party would also gain Hastings and Rye, Peterborough, both Milton Keynes constituencies, Worcester, Stroud, Watford and Truro and Falmouth.

The SNP, meanwhile, would be on course to win almost every seat in Scotland – the only exception being Labour’s seat in Edinburgh South.

By contrast, the Liberal Democrats could face another disappointing election, losing almost half of their seats in Parliament. However, the election of Ed Davey as party leader earlier this week could see the party’s fortunes change in future opinion polls.

Such a election result would result in coalition talks, most likely between Labour and SNP. An agreement with the Scottish nationalists would give Labour a majority of 20 seats, but would likely require major concessions to work – including potentially a second independence referendum.

The next general election is due to take place in May 2024, with the government’s first major test next year in the upcoming local and devolved parliament elections.