Last updated 12 March 2021
It is almost a year since the first lockdown was introduced in the UK and the success of the vaccination programme has led to the Conservatives retaking a lead in the polls after running neck and neck with Labour under Kier Starmer. With local elections fast approaching, what result would a general election bring if held today?
The next election is not due to take place until May 2 2024, but this could change as the government plans to scrap the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, which would allow them to call an election at a time of their choosing.
Based on current polling, the Conservatives are comfortably ahead as the largest party, with a lead of 8.5 percent and a vote share slightly higher than their 2019 result. Labour would see slight boost in support, but lag behind the Tories with just 35.5 percent, almost five percent short of their 2017 result. The Liberal Democrats, trailing in third, would lose more than half of their 2019 support. Meanwhile, the Greens and Reform UK would make considerable gains, whilst the SNP – bruised from current internal division – see only a modest gain on their 2019 result.
So how might such a result translate into seats at a general election?
Based on Flavible’s constituency model, such a result would leave the Conservatives with another comfortable majority for a fifth election victory in a row. The party would lose 16 seats, including High Peak, Bedford and Clwyd South, but maintain a majority of 48.
For Labour, it would be a disappointing result close to that of 2015, with a gain of just 17 seats. The party would fall short of winning many seats lost in the last election, including Colne Valley, Darlington, Redcar, Derby North and Peterborough.
In Scotland, the SNP would leave only four seats for the Conservatives in Scotland, with Labour holding onto its only Scottish seat in Edinburgh South.
The Liberal Democrats would be reduced to just four seats, all in southern England and London. Plaid Cymru and the Green Party would make no further gains.
This projection should be taken with a pinch of salt, however, as boundary changes are due to be completed by the next general election, which may vary how many seats each party would win. The current success of the vaccination programme is also giving the government a boost in the polls, which would likely fade during a rigorous election campaign.