Who would win the next UK election if held today?

Last updated August 1 2021

Lockdown measures have been eased across the country but vaccination rates have stagnated, as has Prime Minister’s boost in the polls. In recent days, Labour has begun to eat into the Conservatives’ lead – but what result would a general election bring if held today?

The next election is not due to take place until May 2 2024, but this could change as the government plans to scrap the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, which would allow them to call an election at a time of their choosing.

Based on current polling, the Conservatives are ahead with a lead of five per cent, with a vote share down on their 2019 result. Labour would see slight boost in support, but lag behind the Tories with just 35.5 per cent, almost five percent short of their 2017 result. The Liberal Democrats, trailing in third, would lose around a third of their 2019 support. Meanwhile, the Greens would make considerable gains, with the SNP remaining fairly stagnant.

So how might such a result translate into seats at a general election?

Based on Flavible’s constituency model, such a result would leave the Conservatives as the largest party but short of a majority by just two seats. The party would lose 41 seats, including High Peak, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Peterborough and Clwyd South, but maintain a majority of 48.

For Labour, it would be a result close to that of 2015 – where the party won 232 seats. The party would gain 38 seats, including many lost at the last election, with a gain of just 17 seats. The party would fall short of winning many seats lost in the last election, including Keighley, Darlington, Derby North and Bridgend. Labour would also pick up Vale of Glamorgan, Watford, Stroud, Hendon, Chingford and Woodford Green, and Hastings and Rye.

In Scotland, the SNP would leave only four seats for the Conservatives in Scotland, with Labour holding onto its only Scottish seat in Edinburgh South and the Liberal Democrats holding on to Edinburgh West and Orkney and Shetland.

The Liberal Democrats would be reduced to nine seats, losing North East Fife and Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. Plaid Cymru would gain Ynys Mon, while the Green Party would make no further gains – despite a huge jump in their vote share.

Such a result would likely see the Conservatives agree a confidence and supply deal with a party like the DUP in Northern Ireland, like the party did under Theresa May after the 2017 general election.

This projection should be taken with a pinch of salt, however, as boundary changes are due to be completed by the next general election, which may vary how many seats each party would win.